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Live
PTR
10.2.7
PTR
10.2.6
Beta
Sha/Galleon Mounts Challenge!
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Post by
Steamhammer
I thought i'd add a thead here in addition to the ones currently on the US & EU boards.
Looking for a link to a Battle net character profile with either
Son of Galleon
or
Heavenly Onyx Cloud Serpent
.
OP from the us thread:
So apparently nobody has obtained a Sha or Galleon mount, ever. There is 0 proof this is on the loot tables at all. There are a few screenshots but mostly the people are in t3 etc which leads me to believe they are using a certain morphing program I won't name.
Now I always thought it was strange I have never seen either mount on a server with easily 2k+ sha loots a week seeing as it dies every 15 minutes almost the entire week. But Guildox comes to the rescue!
http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=30
In case you are not aware guildox scans the armory and gets EVERYONES armory details using blizzards official API. This includes hk's, mounts, achievements etc. It scans US, EU and Asian realms. Literally nobody in wow has seen this mount, Blizzard.
I believe something is definitely not right here, whether it be the mount is unobtainable and only there to encourage geared people to actually kill sha for a chance at it; or something got messed up with the coding and it is actually not possible to drop. (Similar to some heroic 10 man feng loot actually being impossible to drop until it got hotfixed)
Out of the multiple wowhead comments of people claiming they or their guildies got either mount, none of them have ever posted an armory link as proof even when asked multiple times. And well, Guildox solidifies this even more.
Thoughts?
Edit: If you are going to claim you have seen the mount please link an armory as proof or your comment will be considered trolling, or misinformed.
US Thread 1
US Thread 2
US Thread 3
US Thread 4
EU Thread
p.s.
Is the lack of 3d model for these mounts becasue there isn't one?
Atm this site shows Galleon as haveing been looted 0 times (hes not THAT rare :p ) & the sha's data is strange too.
Post by
Mike
Because these bosses aren't looted, the loot is given to you.
There is a few people with the Sha mount on my realm, dont know their names, but ive seen a few of them around, and a rogue with the galleon mount. i think he's the only one so far.
Post by
ElhonnaDS
Here
is the entire loot table for the Sha. Other than the Claw of Anger, which you actually loot off the body, every single item is listed as having only been looted once. Since have personally gotten my tier gloves from him twice, and the PvP cape like 3 times, I imagine that it's because the data collection tool doesn't equate what you get on your personal loot roll for defeating him as having actually dropped off that boss. The single entry entered may have been done manually just to show what is on the loot table. But the standard data collection tools don't work right on this boss because none of the items actually come from the body.
Galleon shows that no one has ever looted anything off him ever, according to wowhead, so again he defies the normal data collection tools because of how the individual loot works.
While I know for a fact that it is live, because I have seen people on it in the game, I imagine you'll want to see an armory link. I'll look to see if I can find one- I know someone in a guild I have an alt in got it a while back, but I forget who and there are like 600 people in it so it may take a while to find them.
I love conspiracy theories- lol.(##RESPBREAK##)8##DELIM##ElhonnaDS##DELIM##
Post by
deathbyte
There is a DK on KT ally (think he is gnome) with it, Saw him in Halfhill market
Post by
ElhonnaDS
So I got as far as the C's in that guild, before deciding I didn't care enough to check that many people profile by profile. I'll try to find out tonight.
Post by
shipwreck
I don't think it's a conspiracy as much as I think it's a simple mistake like what happened to Heroic Feng and
Fan of Fiery Winds
.
There are about 47 pages of discussion on this topic, and not a single armory link. The sooner one can be posted and this mount can be confirmed to exist in live, the sooner all this discussion will die.
Post by
Stok3d
Let me silence any conspiracy theories as I know what's going on. First, notice that this addition was placed on guildox subsequent my suggestion for adding it. What's up on the site is not the finished version--consider it in beta states. Secondly, you can possibly find reasons as to why those mounts haven't been datamined in the the suggestion thread itself:
http://www.guildox.com/wow/forum/thread/2082
Post by
shipwreck
I only speak for myself, but it's not Guildox which has led me to wonder whether this mount is on the loot table or not, it's the lack of any armory link, the on-going joke of linking the mount when it didn't drop, and the existence of mounts that are similar in appearance.
Also, Guildox has been scanning armory data for quite awhile and seems to have a bit of bias towards characters that are actively participating in PvE. These are characters that are likely to be doing Sha of Anger weekly.
I wouldn't be surprised if the drop rate was as low as the Onyxian drake or Experiment 12-B, but I would think someone could produce the armory link of a friend or guildmate, or that Guildox would have seen it at least once.
Post by
Supremacy
It's actually kind of fascinating to watch this whole thing as it unfolds. I've read all three threads, now, and it's just interesting to kind of watch the evolution of things.
The initial thread started off with someone posting something as proof that these two mounts haven't dropped ever for anyone at all. This was based on both anecdotal data ("I haven't actually seen anyone with the mount"), and on the results of a scan of some sort from another website which tracks these things.
This somehow ended up as "proof" that the mount has never dropped. It went on for several pages until someone pointed out that the scan was not necessarily accurate. This was
after
other people had mentioned that according to the website in question? Their characters (one was a level 86 blood elf rogue, another a level 80-ish draenei shaman) simply did not exist.
As an aside, I will admit I thought that might slow things down a bit. When someone pointed out that this infallible site didn't recognize established players as existing. I was wrong.
Back to the point, someone pointed out that the website in question wasn't complete. And that it was in the beta stages. But that didn't seem to matter, as people still kept stating that this website was getting information for all of the characters. Even though it clearly was not.
People began bringing in probability and such. A few people initially pointed out that those numbers were not necessarily accurate. I had thought it would at least slow things down. It did not.
In the third thread, someone linked to the actual website, where they specifically said they had not scanned every player. This was never really addressed. Not directly.
Anyway, that's not specifically what I found fascinating. What that was was watching how the position began to shift. How it went from "These mounts don't drop at all and never have" to "the drop rate is really, really low" to "don't you think someone should have said something by now?"
What's also interesting (to me, although I have been told my tastes are odd) to me is that the people making the initial claim - these mounts never drop - no longer have any solid evidence to back up that position. Their stance boils down to "I haven't seen this drop, and I don't know anyone who has", and that somehow holds more merit than "I have seen it drop, or I know someone who has."
It went from proof to a suspicion. And a lot of the people on the thread seem to forget that those aren't the same thing.
But it gets incredibly interesting when the cynicism creeps in. People saying "Oh, Blizzard screwed up", and everything? That's par for the course. What's interesting to me is that people are trying to position themselves in such a way that they cannot be wrong. Specifically, the people saying "Oh, you know that Blizzard is going to say 'We're going to increase the drop-rate', and that just means they're going to IMPLEMENT this because it wasn't dropping before at all. Typical Blizzard."
Do you see the beauty of saying something like that? Because that way, if anyone ever gets it in the future? You were right. If the drop rate was 10%, and they buffed it to 90% and someone got it? You were right. If it were .002% and they buffed it to .004%? Still right. If anyone ever gets it any point forward in time from when you make that kind of claim? You can still act like you're right.
It's just...it's something I find...well, right. Fascinating. Even weeding out the minor bits of name-calling and the like? Interesting. As people just try to dig in further with their belief that the mounts don't drop while realizing their "evidence" isn't really evidence.
And then when someone else says they've seen the mounts? That doesn't seem to fly. It's either someone mistaking it for another mount, or someone being tricked by some unique confluence of events (shadowform or aesthetic potions/items or some other chicanery), or some such. It can't ever be that this person actually was correct and that they saw the mount. Because
their
claim that they saw the mount is ridiculous, whereas
my
claim that I didn't see the mount is somehow more accurate.
*Shrug* It's made for good reading, is all.
Fascinating.
Post by
asakawa
That was a very nice précis Supremacy, thanks for the good read.
Post by
ElhonnaDS
I'd like to add to Supremacy's post that people have been pointing to the drop rate listed on wowhead and other sites as proof of it not existing. However, if you look at the Sha, or Galleon, or any boss's LFR loot table, you'll find that many, if not all, pieces of loot have never dropped for anyone ever. Blizzard really screwed up, right? Or, since most of us have seen gear drop in LFR, we can assume that the data collection methods we and other sites use for figuring out how often certain mobs drop certain things doesn't seem to be working for bosses with the new LFR loot distribution style where things don't drop off the bosses body, but appear in your bags after a class/spec specific personal loot roll.
Post by
Steamhammer
I started this thead because i thought the guy was wrong & this would be a fast way to find somone who knew where one was. The total absense of an armoury link, now with a
200K gold
bounty on offer, and Blizzards lack of a forum response have got me wondering if they are right.
http://www.worldofwargraphs.com
doesn't seem to track either mount, not contacted the admin there thou so im not sure if thats becase 0/32,130,878 have learnt the mounts or they haven't been added to the table. Doubt its the latter though, they've got all the other mop mounts that are actually found in game.
There was a response to a
Twitter
question: It's something we're watching very carefully to ensure they're dropping correctly. All I've got for now!
Seems odd to me that they cant just look at the database & say X no of people have the mount, but the guys in the CM teams prob dont have access to that sort of function.
Extra suspicion from the way that they both have no source according to battle.net, however neither does the Astral Cloud Serpent, so thats only anecdotal at best.
Post by
skumbananer
Lets assume neither mount have not dropped for anyone, anytime, anywhere. That does not mean it does not exist. Maybe the dropchances just are so ridicolously low that no one has gotten it yet? RNG is RNG, if it has a 1/1000 chance of dropping, it still has a 1/1000 chance of dropping even the fourth millionth time a player rolls for it, just like it had the very first time someone rolled for it.
Post by
Steamhammer
Some maths from
Azeban
, yep its possible, kinda unlikly thou.
To all you naysayers who think it's possible for this to simply not have happened, allow me to give you a lesson in statistics.It isn't even remotely imaginable.
Items off world bosses like Sha and Galleon are rolled on a per character basis, similar to the new system for LFR. Each character is given an equal chance of looting the mount.
Let's be very ridiculously conservative and assume the mount drops 0.001% of the time (1 in 100,000). This is a smaller percent drop than anything in WoW, ever. This means that every time someone kills the Sha, he or she has a 99.999% chance of not seeing the mount. Each time a Sha is killed 40 players get a chance to roll on it.
I'll assume people have been killing the Sha for 12 weeks now, at least 5 times per server, per week, yielding 60 Sha kills per realm, which in turn yields (40*60) = 2,400 looting opportunities. I feel that even the lowest pop realms reach this number, but if not, realms like Illidan have way more to compensate. Again, I'm being very conservative.
A trip to wowprogress reveals 246 US realms, and 267 EU realms, totaling 513 realms.
The Sha of Anger has been looted at least (2,400*513)= 1,231,200 times since launch. I'd bet every penny I had that it's been looted more.
Statistically, the chance of nobody getting the mount by now is .99999^1,231,200 = 0.00045%, or 1 in 222,362. That's roughly similar in magnitude to you winning the $10,000 Powerball this week, buying only three tickets.Alternatively, there is a 99.9996% chance of someone having the mount by now. This is with me being very conservative. As I increase the number of kills, this gets more and more ridiculous, because we're dealing with an exponential.
Let's be crazy and assume it's killed 10 times per week per server. Now the chances of nobody willing are 1 in 49,444,818,741. This is the chance of you winning the Powerball Jackpot every week for the next 5 years.
Have I made my point?
Post by
skumbananer
I hate math and suck at math, and failed even the most basic classes of math back in school, so i cant really argue with someone who knows math. Im gonna try anyway. I will probably look stupid doing this but that does not bother me much - im used to that.
Lets say its a 1/1000 chance of drop with every roll. Youll have a 1 in 1000 to win it every time you roll. Even the 10th time you roll for it, youll need to roll 1/1000, the same the hundreth time, you still need 1/1000. you are never guaranteed to get the correct number even with a infinite amount of rolls, since every separate roll is just 1/1000.
Its not like a lottery with one winning ticket out of one large number, all tickets get sold, so someone is guaranteed to win, its like only one person buying one ticket from a large lottery, and another buying one from another separate large lottery.
Post by
432158
This post was from a user who has deleted their account.
Post by
CobaltMelon
Here is a link to an
Armory
of someone with the Sha mount. The link was posted on the
Heavenly Onyx Cloud Serpent
page.
Post by
Steamhammer
So, one Sha mount dropped after todays re-starts. Let the paranoid ravings/fanboy hero wars commence. :p
Post by
perculia
Grats to
Heteroscodra
on the world first mount today!
We've gotten several
screenshot submissions
of the Sha of Anger mount this morning--thanks for uploading! As a reminder though--please try to remove UI/chat elements to increase your chances of having it approved by our screenshot mod :)
I'll be archiving several earlier comments about the mount--which means that they'll retain their upvotes and still be visible, but will have a brown background so users know the information has changed and that it's now been seen.
Also to clarify how Sha/Galleon (and boss loot initially drops)--we pull the loot tables from Blizzard's data in the dungeon journal. When people run things like LFR and loot drops raid-wide, that adds percentage calculations to our loot tables. For Sha/Galleon, since there's no group-wide loot, it can't really be tracked, so we just rely on Blizzard's data.
We frequently go through the database and remove unused or removed items, such as
Reins of the Albino Riding Crane
, but when Blizzard has officially stated that an item should drop in the current expansion, we're hesitant to flag it as unavailable right away.(##RESPBREAK##)2##DELIM##perculia##DELIM##
Post by
978011
This post was from a user who has deleted their account.
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